Thunderstorms may develop across the Plains on Thursday as an upper level trough approaches the region. A cold front extending from New York into the Central Appalachians will be the focus for the development of thunderstorms from the Northeast southward into the Carolinas.
- Thunderstorms across the Plains on Thursday
- Risk for Thunderstorms Thursday from New York to the Central Appalachians
- Thunderstorm Potential for the Central Plains and Missouri Valley on Friday
- Excessive Rainfall Saturday for Northern Portions of Illinois and Indiana
- Thunderstorms from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Saturday
Thunderstorms across the Plains on Thursday
An approaching upper level trough will slowly shift into the western US on Thursday with an area of low pressure forecast to develop over the Colorado Front Range. Meanwhile, a stalled front should stretch from Nebraska into the Great Lakes. With increasing moisture, instability should be sufficient for the development of thunderstorms from the Front Range of Colorado into Nebraska. Large hail and severe winds will be the main threats with storms during the afternoon and evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along a dryline from western Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles with the same hazards.
Major Cities in Region: Goodland, KS, North Platte, NE, Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA
Thunderstorm Risk for Thursday
Risk for Thunderstorms Thursday from New York to the Central Appalachians
A strong upper level low moving across eastern Canada will bring a cold front through the eastern US on Thursday. Plenty of instability and wind shear will be in place ahead of the cold front for ongoing showers and thunderstorms to redevelop or re-intensify during the afternoon. Severe winds will be the primary hazard from New York to North Carolina, but there will be an isolated threat for large hail and tornadoes. The threat should diminish after dark.
Major Cities in Region: Knoxville, TN, Pittsburgh, PA, Rochester, NY, Raleigh, NC, Richmond, VA, Washington, DC, Philadelphia, PA, Albany, NY, New York, NY
Thunderstorm Risk for Thursday
Thunderstorm Potential for the Central Plains and Missouri Valley on Friday
An area of low pressure and stalled front will not move much into Friday. With sufficient wind shear and instability in place, a few severe thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and evening. There is some uncertainty in the instability and storm coverage, however, at least a few isolated thunderstorms are likely. Large hail and severe winds will be the primary hazards with any storms. A few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Major Cities in Region: Cheyenne, WY, Dodge City, KS, Omaha, NE, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, Davenport, IA
SPC Convective Outlook for Friday
Excessive Rainfall Saturday for Northern Portions of Illinois and Indiana
Periods of showers and thunderstorm activity are forecast on Saturday. While significant rainfall amounts are not expected, the ground should be already saturated from Friday’s rainfall. Additional rainfall amounts will be around an inch for northern portions of Illinois and Indiana. Given the rainfall from Friday, there will be a risk for flooding and local runoff through early Sunday morning.
Major Cities in Region: Chicago, IL, South Bend, IN
Rainfall Accumulation for Saturday
Thunderstorms from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Saturday
A stationary front will remain over portions of the Midwest on Saturday, allowing for the potential for thunderstorms from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley. While there is still some uncertainty in the forecast, there will be the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms from the Colorado Front Range into the Ohio Valley. Hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards with any storms that develop.
Major Cities in Region: Denver, CO, Omaha, NE, Des Moines, IA, Chicago, IL, Indianapolis, IN, Columbus, OH, Pittsburgh. PA
SPC Convective Outlook for Saturday
A Look Ahead
Showers will continue from portions of the Midwest eastward into the Northeast on Sunday along a stalled front. On Monday, an area of low pressure will bring a potential for showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Southern Plains. By Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Plains into the Ohio Valley.
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