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Thunderstorms will continue for the North Central Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Central Plains and Missouri Valley as instability builds throughout the day. A cold front will be the focus for thunderstorm development across the Northern Plains. As these storms move into the Upper Mississippi Valley, there will be a risk for excessive rainfall. A disturbance moving into the Southwest will support the development of thunderstorms across the region. 

  • Continued Thunderstorms Thursday for the North Central Gulf of Mexico
  • Thunderstorms for the Central Plains and Missouri Valley on Thursday
  • Potential for Thunderstorms Thursday across the Northern Plains
  • Excessive Rainfall for the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday
  • Risk for Thunderstorms Thursday across the Southwest
  • Thunderstorm Potential on Friday for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
  • Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the Southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday
  • Thunderstorms Saturday from the Appalachians to the Carolina Coast

US Hazards Thursday, July 19, 2018
US Hazards

Continued Thunderstorms Thursday for the North Central Gulf of Mexico
An area of thunderstorms has developed off the coast of Louisiana and is continuing to intensify. Storms are expected to increase in coverage while drifting slowly southward during the morning and into the afternoon. Winds in excess of 40 knots, heavy rain, frequent lightning, heavy rain, and waterspouts will be potential hazards.

WDT Hazardous Thunderstorm Watch 7/19/18
WDT Hazardous Thunderstorm Watch

Thunderstorms for the Central Plains and Missouri Valley on Thursday
Ongoing storms moving out of the Central Plains and into the Missouri Valley will continue to weaken through the mid-morning hours. Instability will build through mid afternoon, allowing for the development of additional  thunderstorms. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated strong storms may continue after sunset. 

Major Cities in Region: Omaha, NE, Kansas City, MO, Des Moines, IA, Columbia, MO

Thunderstorm Risk for Thursday, July 19, 2018
Thunderstorm Risk for Thursday

Potential for Thunderstorms Thursday across the Northern Plains
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop along an eastward-moving cold front this afternoon through the early evening. Isolated thunderstorms may develop as far west as eastern Montana. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards with these storms.

Major Cities in Region: Minot, ND, Bismarck, ND, Fargo, ND, Minneapolis, MN

Thunderstorm Risk for Thursday, July 19, 2018
Thunderstorm Risk for Thursday

Excessive Rainfall for the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday
A slow moving area of low pressure over the far eastern Dakotas is currently producing scattered showers and thunderstorms that extend into Minnesota. While rainfall rates with the morning activity will decrease, more significant development is anticipated this afternoon. These storms may be heavy, especially across portions of Minnesota, with hourly rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour. Given the slow movement of these storms, widespread rainfall amounts in excess of an inch are likely with locally heavier amounts in excess of 2.00 inches. This may lead to a threat for flooding in some of the stronger storms. 

Major Cities in Region: Minneapolis, MN, Cedar Rapids, IA

Rainfall Accumulation for Thursday, July 19, 2018
Rainfall Accumulation for Thursday

Risk for Thunderstorms Thursday across the Southwest
Weak mid-level disturbances will move westward to the south of a ridge extending into the Four Corners region through this afternoon. These disturbances will aid in the development of thunderstorms across the high terrain during the afternoon. Storms will move westward with strong to damaging winds the primary hazard.

Major Cities in Region: Flagstaff, AZ, Phoenix, AZ, Tucson, AZ

Thunderstorm Risk for Thursday, July 19, 2018
Thunderstorm Risk for Thursday

Thunderstorm Potential on Friday for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
While showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning, the primary risk for thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and evening. Strong instability is expected to build ahead of a southeastward-moving area of low pressure and cold front. With this instability in place, thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front. Damaging winds will be the primary hazards, but a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. 

Major Cities in Region: Evansville, IN, Nashville, TN, Indianapolis, IN, Louisville, KY, Chattanooga, TN, Cincinnati, OH, Columbus, OH

SPC Convective Outlook for Friday, July 20, 2018
SPC Convective Outlook for Friday

Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the Southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday
In addition to the thunderstorm potential, there will also be a risk for excessive rainfall across the Southern Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Given that some areas may receive multiple rounds of storms along a slow-moving cold front, rainfall totals in excess of 1.50-2.00 inches are forecast. 

Major Cities in Region: Chicago, IL, Indianapolis, IN, Louisville, KY, Toledo, OH

Rainfall Accumulation for Friday, July 20, 2018
Rainfall Accumulation for Friday

Thunderstorms Saturday from the Appalachians to the Carolina Coast
An upper level trough will enhance daily thunderstorm activity on Saturday. While this disturbance will be weak, it will still produce a few isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging winds.

Major Cities in Region: Asheville, NC, Charlotte, NC, Savannah, GA, Charleston, SC, Myrtle Beach, SC, Wilmington, NC

SPC Convective Outlook for Friday, July 21, 2018
SPC Convective Outlook for Friday

A Look Ahead
Thunderstorms may develop across the Northern Plains on Sunday ahead of a cold front. This activity will move into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Across the Northeast, thunderstorms may develop ahead of a cold front Monday and again on Tuesday. By Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are forecast along the East Coast. 



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