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MD 0676 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST KS TO TX SOUTH PLAINS

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS TO TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 221839Z - 222045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY 20-21Z. LARGE BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE DRYLINE NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM AND THEN SOUTH INTO
THE PERMIAN BASIN. CU HAS BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE NM/WRN TX
PANHANDLE PORTION OF THE DRYLINE...WHILE DOWNSTREAM TCU/SMALL CBS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. AIR MASS
IS QUITE MOIST FOR THIS LONGITUDE WITH 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BEING
MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THIS IS YIELDING AN
UNCAPPED...STRONGLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500
J/KG. WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS MODEST CURRENTLY PER 18Z AMA
RAOB...DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THIS EVENING. PRIMARY
INITIAL RISK SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ALL HAZARDS BECOMING MORE
PROBABLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35430298 36640219 37360179 38160102 38150042 37660000
            35710018 34370034 33700091 33640217 34020310 34600325
            35430298 

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