An attendant threat for severe weather once again presents itself across portions of the Northern Plains today, with a large area from NE MT to central MN and much of central NE outlined by the SPC for a slight risk of severe weather.  Despite ongoing convection across eastern portions of the region, a mid-level disturbance should move east into western portions of the outlook area, as a surface low currently centered over WC SD, with an ancillary, albeit weak surface boundary, works its way towards central SD this evening.

The atmosphere is expected to become unstable across parts of the region by late this afternoon, with convection possibly developing across parts of central and north central SD and eastern ND between 19z and 21z, moving ESE throughout the evening.  Available instability, ample precipitable water values (high moisture content) and favorable deep layer shear profiles (both were evident per 12z BIS and ABR soundings) will support the risk for damaging winds, large hail (>1.00″), heavy rainfall, and potentially even a few tornadoes within the deepest convection.  The greatest tornado threat appears to be juxtaposed with the best shear in the vicinity (ESE) of the triple point, as the warm sector wraps into the low pressure system.  Additionally, any storms that can become rooted in the boundary layer near the weak surface convergence will also have the potential to be tornadic.

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JLR