A more appreciable severe weather event is likely over portions of the Northern Plains for late this afternoon and evening, particularly for portions of E SD, SW MN and far NW IA, though an MCS is likely to propagate across roughly the same areas that experienced some severe weather in the Upper Mississippi Valley later tonight, with an enhanced threat for wind damage and heavy rainfall.  A trough currently situated over the eastern Rockies will continue to gyrate eastward into the Dakotas this afternoon.  DPVA and low level WAA associated with the approaching trough should provide the impetus for the ontogenesis of severe weather across that region this afternoon, with an H5 jet maxima of 60 kts approaching the region from the SW, coupled with S-SE H85 flow increasing to 30 kts by 00z.

An attendant surface boundary extending eastward from the surface low is expected to be juxtaposed abutting the I-90 corridor region, or perhaps a soupcon to the south, with ample deep layer shear profiles, especially INVO the triple point.  While latest model guidance suggests that 700 mb temps will be AOA 10C across much of the region, CIN should canker away by late this afternoon.  SBCAPE could easily be AOA 3000 J/KG, along with LI < -8C, so if these shear and instability parameters do indeed metamorphose, E/SE SD, far NW IA and even far SW MN could see an enhanced threat for tornadoes, damaging winds and possibly hail > 1.00″ today.  Current thinking suggests that convection should inaugurate within a PIR to MBG corridor by 22z, with discrete, tornadic supercells a threat early in the evolution if the event, before congealing into a more linear structure and traversing ESE throughout the evening.

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JLR