The severe weather threat will be a bit less panoptic today, as Canadian high pressure dominates parts of the middle CONUS following a few days of active weather across the Upper Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes.  As you can see above the SPC has several areas outlined for a slight risk for severe weather, though the greatest risk that exists over the most optimal chasing terrain will be found across the Northern Plains as a shortwave currently centered over the Rockies continues to progress eastward today.

Ongoing convection across parts of the Dakotas should diminish through early afternoon, as ample instability germinates across parts of the Dakotas into far SE MT.  As the shortwave approaches, adequate SBCAPE, moisture and favorable 0-6 km shear profiles will enhance the threat for supercells, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary severe weather threats today.  By 00z the SPC SREF progs downdraft CAPE AOA 1000 J/KG across portions of NW SD/W ND and far E/SE MT, with LI values <-4 and mean 700-500 MB lapse rates >= 7.0 C, while EBS values should range on the order of 30-40 kts across the same region.

However, forecast soundings do indicate some favorable 0-1 km directional shear, so a few tornadoes may also be possible (12z BIS radiosonde is below for environmental reference).  Current thinking is that a few discrete cells may erupt by 21z over parts of the western Dakotas and possibly far ESE MT, but the activity should organize into an MCS and progress ESE across the Northern Plains overnight.

JLR