The main trough responsible for yesterday’s severe weather episode over the Northern Plains, along with the extensive flooding ongoing across the Upper Mississippi River Valley, will continue to move eastward from its current position over the Western Great Lake/Superior Upland region into the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec later this evening.  A rather respectable H25 jet streak of 120 kts will begin to exit stage right at the base of the trough.

The current mid level wave centered over the Upper Midwest will continue to gyrate eastward towards lower Michigan this afternoon, with stellar H5 winds of 60kts, coupled with stout WSW H85 flow of 40 kts.  This mid level wave, coupled with the attendant surface boundaries, should provide a favorable environment for severe weather this afternoon, mainly in the form of damaging winds, though a tornado or two can not be ruled out.  Commodious instability should germinate this afternoon across the region (RUC and NAM guidance suggests SBCAPE values AOA 2500 J/KG across the region by 22z) as WAA in advance of the shortwave, coupled with decent forcing and ample SFC-500 mb shear profiles of 40-50 kts will promote an environment opulent for severe thunderstorms by this afternoon.

Current RUC and HIRESW forecast soundings are adumbrating largely unidirectional wind profiles across the region (see DTW 22z SkewT below), suggesting a preponderant risk for damaging winds as the primary hazard.  The greatest risk for severe weather will exist across the eastern Corn Belt region and into the eastern Great Lakes region today.

Please tune in to ChaserTV later today to see if any streamers are live in the field with severe weather as it unfolds; be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for the latest severe weather updates too.

JLR