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NWSOUN Forecast Rainfall Totals Graphic

The National Weather Service produced graphic above is not encouraging considering the the intense weather already experienced this year in Central Oklahoma. Let’s take a look at the Total Accumulated Rainfall model for a few hours from now with a High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) rendering (click for a larger image):

totp_t5sfc_f09

Turn your attention south of the Red River now where flooding is common and huge rainfall amounts have been measured from San Antonio to Sherman. Word is coming in about neighborhoods, schools and commercial buildings being evacuated due to rising water in urban areas. This is a developing story; stay tuned to the CTV Twitter and Facebook for the latest.

Benbrook, TX

Also occurring south of the Red River was this tornado near Benbrook, TX shot by ChaserTV freelance subscriber, Clint Perkins.  Clint was lucky to be able to shoot this beauty within close proximity to his home.  Tornadoes will continue to be a threat today near the low as it crosses the Red River into Oklahoma.  Heads up!

Hermine is inland, for the most part, and attention now turns to flooding and severe weather associated with the TS.

SPC is marking a slight tornado potential north to almost the Red River with most of SE TX in a 5% risk.

Projected path of the remnants of Hermine will track through TX and Oklahoma bringing heavy rain and associated flooding.

Hurricane Earl continues to churn in the Atlantic with little to no chance of an eyewall landfall in the US. Still though, interests on the east coast should expect Tropical Storm-force winds in areas. We have compiled a slew of maps below and will likely leave these posted throughout this event and update this header text with pertinent information related to Earl.

Satellite Mosaic (Auto Updates)

Tracking Model (Auto Updates)

Intensity Model (Auto Updates)

National Hurricane Center Wind Graphic (Auto Updates)

OrcaSystems "Zoo" Map w/ Intensity (Auto Updates)

Overall Upper Air Pattern (Auto Updates)

Shear Tendency - 24hrs (Auto Updates)

Stroms continue to line up

Hurricane Earl continues to intensify as it inches closer to the US.  The question still remains; will it have a minimal impact on the US or a great one?  Even though the eye wall will likely not hit the continental US, winds, heavy rain and storm-related flooding probably will.  That said, lets take a look at some models:

SWFMD

Early Cycle Intensity

The “SMFMD” shows potential tracks of Hurricane Earl.  Note that only one model is placing the eye of this storm on land, the rest keep this most intense portion of the storm over open water.  This is encouraging although as mentioned above, there is still a good possibility that there will be damage along many portions of the east coast.
The “Early Cycle Intensity” map is showing growth potential over the next 12-24 hours but after that, Earl arrives in a much cooler area of water and contends with a front that will be pushing off the coast.  As noted visually above, trending down in intensity will be the mode by Wednesday morning.

National Hurricane Center

Finally, this map is produced by the NHC and shows TS force wind probabilities on either side of this massive storm.  NC & VA look to be under the gun with the highest chances for strong winds.  As has been the theme throughout this write-up though, anywhere along the east coast can see enough wind to do damage.  Many, many areas will be affected by Earl.

As always, make sure you follow the CTV facebook and twitter. We will cover this storm as it approaches and announce live feeds, emergent news and storm updates.